Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Preston: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Preston

M. Smith 76'

E. Riis 14'

12/7/2024

Championship · Round 19Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday35%

×Draw25%

Preston40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.52

Sheffield Wednesday

1.40

Preston

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 37 away

1.21

creates per match

1.01

2.02

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.21

Preston

1.01

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

2.02

Preston

1.58

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.29scores less

Preston+0.04on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

60%

Sheffield Wednesday or Preston

75%

Draw or Preston

65%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

16%

Preston wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

75%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

41%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

17%

Preston 1+ goals

78%

Preston 2+ goals

45%

Preston 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

46%

Preston (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.02 · 12 matches

Preston away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.58 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.21 + Preston defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.40

Preston attack 1.01 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

35%

level

25%

Preston scores more

40%

Preston at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

S. Greenwood

Preston · F

8.3

Match Events

14'

E. Riis

36'

Liam Palmer

46'

A. Musaba← L. Palmer

46'

Pol Valentín← I. Ugbo

46'

S. Ingelsson← Y. Valery

53'

Josh WindassMissed penalty

63'

65'

69'

70'

73'

N. Chalobah← S. Charles

76'

M. Smith↳ A. Musaba

77'

D. Holmes← M. Frøkjær-Jensen

78'

Nathaniel Chalobah

81'

Stefán Teitur Þórðarson

82'

B. Whiteman← S. Þórðarson

88'

M. Osmajić← E. Riis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldPreston

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots14

1.46Expected Goals (xG)3.34

6Corners3

16Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots14

4On Target7

6Off Target6

3Blocked1

10Inside Box11

3Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

455Total Passes382

380Accurate Passes301

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

0.05Goals Prevented0.05

Discipline

16Fouls9

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1