Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Preston: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Preston

L. Lindsay 49'

8/19/2023

Championship · Round 3Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 44+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday41%

×Draw26%

Preston33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.27

Sheffield Wednesday

1.45

Preston

1.27

Sheffield Wednesday creates 14% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 57 away

1.29

creates per match

1.00

1.53

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.29

Preston

1.00

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.53

Preston

1.60

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.31scores less

Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

67%

Sheffield Wednesday or Preston

74%

Draw or Preston

59%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

20%

Preston wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

77%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

42%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

18%

Preston 1+ goals

72%

Preston 2+ goals

36%

Preston 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

56%

Preston (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.53 · 44 matches

Preston away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.29 + Preston defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Preston attack 1.00 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

41%

level

26%

Preston scores more

33%

Sheffield Wednesday at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. Lindsay

Preston · D

7.6

Match Events

49'

L. Lindsay↳ K. Best

65'

M. Smith← M. Diaby

72'

C. Paterson← J. Delgado

72'

D. Gassama← A. Musaba

77'

A. Fletcher← L. Gregory

77'

J. Whatmough← K. Best

77'

B. Woodburn← D. Holmes

82'

Devis Vásquez

88'

N. Mawene← M. Frøkjær-Jensen

90+3'

Ryan Ledson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldPreston

Overview

53%Possession47%

8Total Shots5

0.45Expected Goals (xG)0.40

0Corners4

14Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots5

3On Target2

2Off Target2

3Blocked1

5Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

396Total Passes349

288Accurate Passes222

73%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0