Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Morecambe

J. Windass 87', 22'

B. Bannan 1'

2/14/2023

League One · Round 32Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday67%

×Draw20%

Morecambe13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.81

Sheffield Wednesday

2.10

Morecambe

0.81

Sheffield Wednesday creates 159% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 46 away

2.04

creates per match

0.89

0.73

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

2.04

Morecambe

0.89

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

0.73

Morecambe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

87%

Sheffield Wednesday or Morecambe

80%

Draw or Morecambe

33%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

43%

Morecambe wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

88%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

62%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

35%

Morecambe 1+ goals

56%

Morecambe 2+ goals

19%

Morecambe 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

83%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 2.04 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.10

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

67%

level

20%

Morecambe scores more

13%

Sheffield Wednesday at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Windass

Sheffield Wednesday · F

8.9

Match Events

1'

10'

22'

36'

46'

F. Dele-Bashiru← G. Byers

46'

A. Mayor← M. Mellon

64'

Liam Gibson

77'

T. Bakinson← B. Bannan

77'

R. Cooney← R. Delaney

77'

J. Austerfield← L. Shaw

78'

J. Taylor← D. Crowley

87'

J. Windass↳ F. Dele-Bashiru

88'

A. Hunter← C. Stockton

90+1'

R. Shipston← M. Smith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldMorecambe

Overview

64%Possession36%

17Total Shots6

3Corners1

7Fouls7

Shots

17Total Shots6

5On Target2

4Off Target4

8Blocked0

11Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

716Total Passes420

626Accurate Passes338

87%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2