Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Hull City: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

C. Hughes 90+4'

4/5/2025

Championship · Round 40Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday33%

×Draw24%

Hull City43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.59

Sheffield Wednesday

1.37

Hull City

1.59

Hull City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 36 away

1.21

creates per match

1.17

2.02

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.21

Hull City

1.17

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

2.02

Hull City

1.53

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.29scores less

Hull City+0.05on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

57%

Sheffield Wednesday or Hull City

76%

Draw or Hull City

67%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

15%

Hull City wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

75%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

40%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

16%

Hull City 1+ goals

80%

Hull City 2+ goals

47%

Hull City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

44%

Hull City (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.02 · 12 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.21 + Hull City defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hull City attack 1.17 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

33%

level

24%

Hull City scores more

43%

Hull City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

I. Pandur

Hull City · G

7.9

Match Events

62'

C. Paterson← M. Smith

62'

S. Armstrong← S. Ingelsson

69'

M. Burstow← K. Joseph

69'

S. Alzate← J. Gelhardt

79'

D. Iorfa← A. Famewo

79'

A. Musaba← J. Windass

81'

82'

87'

88'

89'

90+3'

90+3'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldHull

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots8

1.05Expected Goals (xG)0.63

5Corners3

14Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots8

4On Target2

8Off Target3

3Blocked3

11Inside Box6

4Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

426Total Passes313

345Accurate Passes231

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

1.64Goals Prevented1.64

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1