Sheffield Wednesday 3–1 Hull City: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

1/1/2024

Championship · Round 26Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday37%

×Draw25%

Hull City38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.43

Sheffield Wednesday

1.41

Hull City

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 45 away

1.27

creates per match

1.12

1.74

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.27

Hull City

1.12

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.74

Hull City

1.55

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.27scores less

Hull City-0.01on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

62%

Sheffield Wednesday or Hull City

75%

Draw or Hull City

63%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

17%

Hull City wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

76%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

41%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

17%

Hull City 1+ goals

76%

Hull City 2+ goals

42%

Hull City 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

49%

Hull City (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.74 · 18 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.27 + Hull City defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Hull City attack 1.12 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

37%

level

25%

Hull City scores more

38%

Hull City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff