Sheffield Wednesday 1–2 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Cardiff

12/23/2023

Championship · Round 23Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday37%

×Draw26%

Cardiff36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.29

Sheffield Wednesday

1.31

Cardiff

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

1.27

creates per match

0.85

1.74

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.27

Cardiff

0.85

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.74

Cardiff

1.36

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.27scores less

Cardiff+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

64%

Sheffield Wednesday or Cardiff

74%

Draw or Cardiff

63%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

17%

Cardiff wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

73%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

38%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

14%

Cardiff 1+ goals

72%

Cardiff 2+ goals

37%

Cardiff 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

51%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.74 · 18 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.27 + Cardiff defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cardiff attack 0.85 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

37%

level

26%

Cardiff scores more

36%

Sheffield Wednesday at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff