Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Birmingham

I. Ugbo 53', 15'

2/9/2024

Championship · Round 31Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday35%

×Draw27%

Birmingham38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.30

Sheffield Wednesday

1.24

Birmingham

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

1.35

creates per match

0.94

1.67

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.35

Birmingham

0.94

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.67

Birmingham

1.13

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.21scores less

Birmingham-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

62%

Sheffield Wednesday or Birmingham

73%

Draw or Birmingham

65%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

15%

Birmingham wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

71%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

35%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

13%

Birmingham 1+ goals

73%

Birmingham 2+ goals

37%

Birmingham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

48%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.67 · 22 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.35 + Birmingham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.24

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

35%

level

27%

Birmingham scores more

38%

Birmingham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

I. Ugbo

Sheffield Wednesday · M

8.9

Match Events

4'

Barry Bannan

15'

I. Ugbo↳ I. Poveda

53'

I. Ugbo↳ M. Johnson

54'

Paik Seung-Ho← I. Šunjić

55'

J. Stansfield← S. Hogan

63'

W. Vaulks← M. Diaby

65'

T. Roberts← S. Dembélé

65'

K. Miyoshi← E. Laird

75'

M. Smith← B. Cadamarteri

76'

A. Musaba← I. Poveda

76'

M. Ihiekwe← A. Famewo

76'

K. Anderson← A. Dozzell

85'

Will Vaulks

88'

K. Pedersen← M. Johnson

90+9'

Michael Smith

90+9'

Krystian Bielik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldBirmingham

Overview

37%Possession63%

13Total Shots25

1.52Expected Goals (xG)1.74

1Corners7

14Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots25

3On Target4

8Off Target12

2Blocked9

10Inside Box14

3Outside Box11

Passing

37%Possession63%

292Total Passes487

200Accurate Passes406

68%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3

Championship: Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 Birmingham

Sheffield Wednesday beat Birmingham 2-0 in Championship on February 9, 2024.

Goals: I. Ugbo (15', 53').

Birmingham controlled possession (63%) and registered 25 shots to 13.

The match was played at Hillsborough in Sheffield.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 Birmingham