Sheffield Utd 1–0 Watford: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

D. Bachmann 2' (OG)

9/1/2024

Championship · Round 4Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Sheffield Utd47%

×Draw26%

Watford27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.06

Sheffield Utd

1.50

Watford

1.06

Sheffield Utd creates 42% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 44 away

1.64

creates per match

1.07

1.04

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.64

Watford

1.07

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.04

Watford

1.35

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.47scores less

Watford-0.02on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

73%

Sheffield Utd or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

53%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

24%

Watford wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

78%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

44%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

19%

Watford 1+ goals

65%

Watford 2+ goals

29%

Watford 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

64%

Watford (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.04 · 12 matches

Watford away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.64 + Watford defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Watford attack 1.07 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

47%

level

26%

Watford scores more

27%

Sheffield Utd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Bachmann

Watford · G

8.2

Match Events

2'

D. BachmannOwn goal

16'

Kieffer MooreMissed penalty

49'

Yasser Larouci

52'

Francisco Sierralta

53'

K. Sema← Y. Larouci

59'

J. Shackleton← A. Gilchrist

65'

S. McCallum← J. Rak-Sakyi

69'

K. Baah← J. Morris

69'

D. Jebbison← V. Bayo

77'

T. Ince← G. Chakvetadze

83'

Callum O'Hare

85'

Anel Ahmedhodžić

87'

S. Peck← C. OHare

87'

R. Brewster← K. Moore

90+5'

90+4'

90+3'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldWatford

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots7

2.24Expected Goals (xG)0.78

8Corners5

15Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots7

7On Target1

6Off Target4

5Blocked2

13Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

452Total Passes423

382Accurate Passes346

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

1.02Goals Prevented1.02

Discipline

15Fouls12

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Sheffield Utd vs Watford

Sheffield Utd beat Watford 1-0 in Championship on September 1, 2024.

Goals: D. Bachmann (2' o.g.).

Sheffield Utd controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.

Sheffield Utd vs Watford — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sheffield Utd vs Watford