Sheffield Utd 3–1 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tottenham

O. McBurnie 84'

L. Mousset 69'

S. Berge 31'

H. Kane 90'

7/2/2020

Premier League · Round 32Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Sheffield Utd30%

×Draw26%

Tottenham43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.44

Sheffield Utd

1.16

Tottenham

1.44

Tottenham creates 24% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 202 away

0.98

creates per match

1.63

1.26

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

0.98

Tottenham

1.63

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.26

Tottenham

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Tottenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

57%

Sheffield Utd or Tottenham

74%

Draw or Tottenham

70%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

12%

Tottenham wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

69%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

32%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

11%

Tottenham 1+ goals

76%

Tottenham 2+ goals

42%

Tottenham 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

41%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.26 · 43 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 202 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 0.98 + Tottenham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tottenham attack 1.63 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

30%

level

26%

Tottenham scores more

43%

Tottenham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

S. Berge

Sheffield Utd · M

8.5

Match Events

31'

S. Berge↳ C. Basham

39'

Oliver Norwood

56'

E. Lamela← S. Bergwijn

63'

L. Mousset← D. McGoldrick

69'

L. Mousset↳ E. Stevens

71'

D. Alli← M. Sissoko

71'

T. Ndombèlé← S. Aurier

81'

J. Vertonghen← B. Davies

84'

O. McBurnie↳ S. Berge

89'

Oliver McBurnie

90+1'

K. Freeman← O. McBurnie

90'

H. Kane↳ Son Heung-Min

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldTottenham

Overview

32%Possession68%

7Total Shots9

1Corners6

13Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots9

5On Target2

2Off Target5

0Blocked2

5Inside Box6

2Outside Box3

Passing

32%Possession68%

312Total Passes637

210Accurate Passes543

67%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1