Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sheffield Utd vs Portsmouth — Championship 2024

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
Preview
19:45
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
2/16/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 32Bramall Lane
Big match
51%
Sheffield Utd
model favours
51%26%23%
1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Sheffield Utd51%
×Draw26%
Portsmouth23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.53
Portsmouth
0.92

Sheffield Utd creates 66% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.61
Portsmouth
0.86

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
0.98
Portsmouth
1.45

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.47scores less
Portsmouth+0.27scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
77%
Sheffield Utd or Portsmouth
74%
Draw or Portsmouth
49%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
27%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
78%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
45%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
20%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
60%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
23%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
69%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.98 · 14 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.45 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.61 + Portsmouth defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.53

Portsmouth attack 0.86 + Sheffield Utd defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
51%
level
26%
Portsmouth scores more
23%

Sheffield Utd at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sheffield Utd
Attack-heavy
Portsmouth
Balanced
53%Possession47%
78%Pass accuracy72%
13.4Shots12.2
1.50xGBiggest gap1.18
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sheffield UtdPortsmouth

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Sheffield Utd
1
Draws
1
Portsmouth
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 20%
1–03–02–10–00–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Utd
DWWLL
Portsmouth
LWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sheffield Utd vs Portsmouth — Match Preview

Sheffield Utd face Portsmouth on February 16, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sheffield Utd host Portsmouth at Bramall Lane.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.