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Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
9/28/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Portsmouth37%
×Draw27%
Sheffield Utd36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.27
Sheffield Utd
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 16 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.38
Sheffield Utd
1.34

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.13
Sheffield Utd
1.17

finishing

Portsmouth-0.28scores less
Sheffield Utd-0.03on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
64%
Portsmouth or Sheffield Utd
73%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
63%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
16%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
72%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
36%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
14%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
71%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
35%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
51%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 39 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.38 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sheffield Utd attack 1.34 + Portsmouth defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Portsmouth scores more
37%
level
27%
Sheffield Utd scores more
36%

Portsmouth at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
W. NorrisPortsmouthPortsmouth · G
7.9

Match Events

2'
Tom McIntyre
41'
Anel Ahmedhodžić
61'
C. Saydee← S. Silvera
63'
A. Brooks← J. Rak-Sakyi
63'
R. Brewster← C. OHare
69'
F. Seriki← A. Gilchrist
78'
T. Campbell← K. Moore
83'
H. Blair← P. Lane
86'
Harvey Blair
90+6'
Vinícius Souza

Possession

46%Portsmouth

Shots

9Portsmouth

Pass accuracy

47%Portsmouth

Statistics

PortsmouthSheffield
Overview
46%Possession54%
9Total Shots12
0.50Expected Goals (xG)0.55
14Corners9
12Fouls19
Shots
9Total Shots12
2On Target4
5Off Target3
2Blocked5
5Inside Box8
4Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
305Total Passes372
218Accurate Passes294
71%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
0.65Goals Prevented0.65
Discipline
12Fouls19
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Championship: Portsmouth 0–0 Sheffield Utd

Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd drew 0-0 in Championship on September 28, 2024.

Sheffield Utd controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.