Sheffield Utd 1–0 Norwich: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Norwich

B. Sharp 36'

3/7/2020

Premier League · Round 29Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sheffield Utd47%

×Draw26%

Norwich27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.04

Sheffield Utd

1.48

Norwich

1.04

Sheffield Utd creates 42% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 49 away

0.88

creates per match

0.55

1.52

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

0.88

Norwich

0.55

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.52

Norwich

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

73%

Sheffield Utd or Norwich

74%

Draw or Norwich

53%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

24%

Norwich wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

77%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

43%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

19%

Norwich 1+ goals

65%

Norwich 2+ goals

28%

Norwich 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

64%

Norwich (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 0.88 + Norwich defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.48

Norwich attack 0.55 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

47%

level

26%

Norwich scores more

27%

Sheffield Utd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Henderson

Sheffield Utd · G

7.8

Match Events

36'

B. Sharp↳ J. Lundstram

46'

J. Drmic← T. Cantwell

61'

B. Osborn← E. Stevens

66'

M. Vrančić← A. Tettey

71'

D. McGoldrick← B. Sharp

87'

A. Idah← O. Duda

90'

S. Berge← O. McBurnie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldNorwich

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots12

10Corners5

12Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target5

4Off Target4

2Blocked3

9Inside Box8

1Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

359Total Passes519

267Accurate Passes422

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Offsides3