Norwich 2–1 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sheffield Utd

A. Forson 84'

J. Stacey 68'

J. Riedewald 21'

3/11/2026

Championship · Round 37Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Norwich37%

×Draw26%

Sheffield Utd37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.33

Norwich

1.35

Sheffield Utd

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 39 away

1.52

creates per match

1.36

1.29

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Norwich

1.52

Sheffield Utd

1.36

allows per match

Norwich

1.29

Sheffield Utd

1.18

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Norwich+0.18scores more

Sheffield Utd+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

63%

Norwich or Sheffield Utd

74%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

63%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

17%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

74%

Norwich 2+ goals

39%

Norwich 3+ goals

15%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

74%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

38%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

51%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 54 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.52 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sheffield Utd attack 1.36 + Norwich defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Norwich scores more

37%

level

26%

Sheffield Utd scores more

37%

Norwich at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Stacey

Norwich · D

8.0

Match Events

21'

J. Riedewald↳ C. O'Hare

44'

Kenny McLean

46'

P. Maghoma← T. Springett

60'

P. Mattsson← S. Field

61'

J. Wright← A. Slimane

61'

E. Mundle Smith← M. Kvistgaarden

64'

J. Rothwell← J. Riedewald

65'

T. Chong← T. Campbell

68'

72'

77'

81'

84'

A. Forson↳ P. Maghoma

88'

88'

88'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichSheffield

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots6

1.78Expected Goals (xG)0.74

11Corners4

7Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots6

7On Target2

6Off Target3

6Blocked1

14Inside Box5

5Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

456Total Passes333

366Accurate Passes249

80%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

1.10Goals Prevented1.10

Discipline

7Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3