Sheffield Utd 2–1 Norwich: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Norwich

B. Sharp 90+3'

J. Egan 9'

J. Rhodes 26'

8/18/2018

Championship · Round 3Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 48+ matches

Sheffield Utd48%

×Draw25%

Norwich26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.10

Sheffield Utd

1.58

Norwich

1.10

Sheffield Utd creates 44% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 61 away

1.68

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.68

Norwich

1.20

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.00

Norwich

1.48

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.12scores less

Norwich+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

74%

Sheffield Utd or Norwich

75%

Draw or Norwich

52%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

25%

Norwich wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

79%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

47%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

21%

Norwich 1+ goals

67%

Norwich 2+ goals

30%

Norwich 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

65%

Norwich (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.00 · 48 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.68 + Norwich defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.58

Norwich attack 1.20 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

48%

level

25%

Norwich scores more

26%

Sheffield Utd at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

O. Norwood

Sheffield Utd · M

8.5

Match Events

9'

J. Egan↳ O. Norwood

26'

J. Rhodes↳ O. Hernández

35'

Teemu Pukki

46'

R. Leonard← B. Woodburn

61'

D. McGoldrick← K. Freeman

63'

Tom Trybull

79'

M. Stiepermann← M. Leitner

83'

David McGoldrick

87'

D. Srbeny← T. Pukki

90'

Chris Basham

90+5'

R. Stearman← B. Sharp

90+2'

B. Godfrey← A. Tettey

90+3'

B. Sharp↳ L. Clarke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldNorwich

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots11

9Corners4

15Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots11

5On Target2

4Off Target7

5Blocked2

11Inside Box8

3Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

473Total Passes444

358Accurate Passes342

76%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0