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Sheffield Utd vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
D. McGoldrick 70' (pen)
10/6/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 48+ matches

Sheffield Utd50%
×Draw25%
Hull City25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.60
Hull City
1.06

Sheffield Utd creates 51% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 59 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.68
Hull City
1.11

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
1.00
Hull City
1.53

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.12scores less
Hull City+0.08on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
75%
Sheffield Utd or Hull City
75%
Draw or Hull City
50%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
26%
Hull City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
80%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
47%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
22%
Hull City 1+ goals
65%
Hull City 2+ goals
29%
Hull City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
66%
Hull City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.00 · 48 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.68 + Hull City defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hull City attack 1.11 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
50%
level
25%
Hull City scores more
25%

Sheffield Utd at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
O. NorwoodSheffield UtdSheffield Utd · M
8.2

Match Events

30'
N. Dicko← F. Campbell
39'
John Egan
65'
Tommy Elphick
66'
P. Coutts← M. Duffy
70'
D. McGoldrickPenalty
71'
J. Bowen← C. Martin
78'
David McGoldrick
80'
K. Grosicki← J. Irvine
88'
M. Johnson← B. Sharp
88'
L. Clarke← D. McGoldrick

Possession

52%Sheffield

Shots

12Sheffield

Pass accuracy

50%Sheffield

Statistics

SheffieldHull
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots8
7Corners5
11Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots8
3On Target3
6Off Target3
3Blocked2
9Inside Box4
3Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
493Total Passes454
382Accurate Passes344
77%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Sheffield Utd vs Hull City

Sheffield Utd beat Hull City 1-0 in Championship on October 6, 2018.

Goals: D. McGoldrick (70' pen).

Sheffield Utd controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.