Hull City 1–0 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sheffield Utd

B. Akintola 30'

10/4/2025

Championship · Round 9MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Hull City35%

×Draw25%

Sheffield Utd40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.44

Hull City

1.32

Sheffield Utd

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

1.32

creates per match

1.37

1.51

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Hull City

1.32

Sheffield Utd

1.37

allows per match

Hull City

1.51

Sheffield Utd

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Sheffield Utd-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

60%

Hull City or Sheffield Utd

75%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

65%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

15%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

73%

Hull City 2+ goals

38%

Hull City 3+ goals

15%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

76%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

42%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

46%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.51 · 19 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.32 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.32 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sheffield Utd attack 1.37 + Hull City defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hull City scores more

35%

level

25%

Sheffield Utd scores more

40%

Sheffield Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

C. Hughes

Hull City · D

8.2

Match Events

15'

A. Hadziahmetovic← J. Lundstram

30'

B. Akintola↳ L. Coyle

46'

60'

60'

62'

62'

M. Crooks← B. Akintola

63'

D. Ings← C. O'Hare

63'

T. Davies← S. Peck

72'

T. Cannon← T. Campbell

72'

H. Burrows← S. McCallum

81'

L. Barry← A. Matos

82'

S. Ajayi← O. McBurnie

82'

E. Destan← J. Gelhardt

88'

John Egan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullSheffield

Overview

38%Possession62%

5Total Shots13

0.45Expected Goals (xG)2.52

4Corners9

13Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots13

2On Target4

2Off Target4

1Blocked5

5Inside Box9

0Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

314Total Passes486

221Accurate Passes399

70%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.16Goals Prevented-0.16

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2