Sheffield Utd 0–1 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Crystal Palace

O. Édouard 49'

8/12/2023

Premier League · Round 1Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sheffield Utd28%

×Draw23%

Crystal Palace49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.81

Sheffield Utd

1.31

Crystal Palace

1.81

Crystal Palace creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 35 away

1.36

creates per match

1.21

2.42

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.36

Crystal Palace

1.21

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

2.42

Crystal Palace

1.26

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.36scores less

Crystal Palace-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

51%

Sheffield Utd or Crystal Palace

77%

Draw or Crystal Palace

72%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

12%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

73%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

38%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

14%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

84%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

54%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

36%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.42 · 6 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.36 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Crystal Palace attack 1.21 + Sheffield Utd defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

28%

level

23%

Crystal Palace scores more

49%

Crystal Palace at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. Andersen

Crystal Palace · D

8.7

Match Events

16'

William Osula

49'

O. Édouard↳ J. Ayew

57'

Anel Ahmedhodžić

80'

Vinicius Souza← C. Basham

80'

A. Ben Slimane← J. Robinson

80'

Y. Larouci← M. Lowe

86'

Anis Ben Slimane

87'

A. Hackford← B. Traoré

87'

A. Brooks← B. Osborn

90+2'

J. Tomkins← M. Guéhi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldCrystal

Overview

32%Possession68%

8Total Shots24

0.51Expected Goals (xG)1.89

5Corners5

18Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots24

1On Target8

4Off Target8

3Blocked8

4Inside Box17

4Outside Box7

Passing

32%Possession68%

262Total Passes562

162Accurate Passes466

62%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls11

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2