Sheffield Utd 1–0 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crystal Palace

J. Lundstram 47'

8/18/2019

Premier League · Round 2Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sheffield Utd30%

×Draw24%

Crystal Palace45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.63

Sheffield Utd

1.29

Crystal Palace

1.63

Crystal Palace creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 35 away

1.31

creates per match

1.21

2.05

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.31

Crystal Palace

1.21

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

2.05

Crystal Palace

1.26

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.31scores less

Crystal Palace-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

55%

Sheffield Utd or Crystal Palace

76%

Draw or Crystal Palace

70%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

13%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

72%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

37%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

14%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

80%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

48%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

40%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.05 · 8 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.31 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Crystal Palace attack 1.21 + Sheffield Utd defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

30%

level

24%

Crystal Palace scores more

45%

Crystal Palace at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Lundstram

Sheffield Utd · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

John Lundstram

29'

L. Freeman← J. Fleck

47'

J. Lundstram

56'

O. McBurnie← C. Robinson

65'

J. Schlupp← M. Meyer

70'

J. McCarthy← A. Townsend

74'

George Baldock

74'

James McCarthy

82'

C. Wickham← J. McArthur

85'

Luke Freeman

89'

P. Jagielka← D. McGoldrick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldCrystal

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots6

8Corners4

16Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots6

3On Target4

6Off Target0

6Blocked2

10Inside Box2

5Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

354Total Passes498

274Accurate Passes392

77%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1