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Sheffield Utd vs Cardiff — Championship 2018

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
4/23/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Sheffield Utd50%
×Draw26%
Cardiff24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.49
Cardiff
0.95

Sheffield Utd creates 57% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.62
Cardiff
0.85

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
1.05
Cardiff
1.36

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.31scores less
Cardiff+0.15scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
76%
Sheffield Utd or Cardiff
74%
Draw or Cardiff
50%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
25%
Cardiff wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
77%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
44%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
19%
Cardiff 1+ goals
61%
Cardiff 2+ goals
25%
Cardiff 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
67%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 16 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.62 + Cardiff defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.49

Cardiff attack 0.85 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
50%
level
26%
Cardiff scores more
24%

Sheffield Utd at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Sheffield Utd 1–0 Cardiff

Sheffield Utd beat Cardiff 1-0 in Championship on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.