Cardiff 0–1 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

G. Baldock 64'

11/12/2022

Championship · Round 21Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cardiff37%

×Draw28%

Sheffield Utd35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.14

Cardiff

1.18

Sheffield Utd

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

1.07

creates per match

0.94

1.34

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Cardiff

1.07

Sheffield Utd

0.94

allows per match

Cardiff

1.34

Sheffield Utd

1.29

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Cardiff-0.31scores less

Sheffield Utd+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

65%

Cardiff or Sheffield Utd

72%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

63%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

16%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

69%

Cardiff 2+ goals

33%

Cardiff 3+ goals

12%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

68%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

32%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

51%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 21 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.07 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sheffield Utd attack 0.94 + Cardiff defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cardiff scores more

37%

level

28%

Sheffield Utd scores more

35%

Cardiff at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Egan

Sheffield Utd · D

7.7

Match Events

14'

C. Clark← J. Robinson

46'

J. McAtee← O. Arblaster

63'

R. Colwill← M. Harris

64'

G. Baldock

71'

S. Ojo← N. Nkounkou

72'

G. Whyte← J. Ralls

77'

A. Rinomhota← T. Sang

79'

Enda Stevens

88'

R. Khadra← I. Ndiaye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffSheffield

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots10

5Corners4

10Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots10

2On Target5

8Off Target4

2Blocked1

7Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

430Total Passes436

334Accurate Passes326

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2