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Sheffield Utd vs Burnley — Championship 2025

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
Preview
15:00
Burnley
Burnley
12/12/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21Bramall Lane
Big match
44%
Burnley
model favours
30%26%44%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sheffield Utd30%
×Draw26%
Burnley44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.15
Burnley
1.46

Burnley creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.73
Burnley
1.69

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
1.23
Burnley
0.56

finishing

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
56%
Sheffield Utd or Burnley
74%
Draw or Burnley
70%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
12%
Burnley wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
68%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
32%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
11%
Burnley 1+ goals
77%
Burnley 2+ goals
43%
Burnley 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
40%
Burnley (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.73 + Burnley defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.15

Burnley attack 1.69 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
30%
level
26%
Burnley scores more
44%

Burnley at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley win just 9% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Utd
DWWLL
Burnley
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sheffield Utd host Burnley

December 12, 2026: Sheffield Utd take on Burnley in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sheffield Utd host Burnley at Bramall Lane.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.