Burnley 2–1 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sheffield Utd

J. Brownhill 44' (pen), 28'

T. Cannon 37'

4/21/2025

Championship · Round 44Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Burnley54%

×Draw25%

Sheffield Utd21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.86

Burnley

1.57

Sheffield Utd

0.86

Burnley creates 83% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 32 away

1.89

creates per match

1.25

0.48

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Burnley

1.89

Sheffield Utd

1.25

allows per match

Burnley

0.48

Sheffield Utd

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

79%

Burnley or Sheffield Utd

75%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

46%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

28%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

79%

Burnley 2+ goals

46%

Burnley 3+ goals

21%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

58%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

21%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

72%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.48 · 27 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.89 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sheffield Utd attack 1.25 + Burnley defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Burnley scores more

54%

level

25%

Sheffield Utd scores more

21%

Burnley at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Brownhill

Burnley · M

8.2

Match Events

27'

Gustavo Hamer

28'

J. Brownhill

37'

T. Cannon↳ G. Hamer

44'

J. BrownhillPenalty

45+1'

Jack Robinson

60'

J. Rak-Sakyi← B. Brereton

60'

T. Campbell← T. Cannon

62'

J. Laurent← M. Edwards

67'

Lucas Pires

74'

F. Seriki← Vinicius Souza

75'

S. McCallum← H. Burrows

79'

J. Sarmiento← H. Mejbri

81'

R. Brewster← S. Peck

88'

J. Worrall← J. Brownhill

88'

A. Barnes← Z. Flemming

90+6'

Rhian Brewster

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleySheffield

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots15

2.04Expected Goals (xG)0.80

3Corners4

11Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots15

4On Target4

1Off Target4

5Blocked7

8Inside Box11

2Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

367Total Passes349

283Accurate Passes262

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.06Goals Prevented-0.06

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1