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Sheffield Utd vs Bolton — Championship 2018

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
Preview
18:45
Bolton
Bolton
9/1/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 4Bramall Lane
Big match
58%
Sheffield Utd
model favours
58%24%18%

80% of Bolton’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Sheffield Utd58%
×Draw24%
Bolton18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.69
Bolton
0.82

Sheffield Utd creates 106% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 53 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.69
Bolton
0.75

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
0.90
Bolton
1.68

finishing

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
82%
Sheffield Utd or Bolton
76%
Draw or Bolton
42%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
32%
Bolton wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
82%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
50%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
24%
Bolton 1+ goals
56%
Bolton 2+ goals
20%
Bolton 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
76%
Bolton (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.90 · 116 matches

Bolton away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.68 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.69 + Bolton defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Bolton attack 0.75 + Sheffield Utd defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
58%
level
24%
Bolton scores more
18%

Sheffield Utd at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bolton have scored in 9 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Bolton’s matches
  • 40% of Bolton’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Style contrast — Sheffield Utd play Attack-heavy, Bolton Direct / counter-attacking

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sheffield Utd
Attack-heavy
Bolton
Direct / counter-attacking
53%Possession41%
78%Pass accuracy66%
13.2ShotsBiggest gap9.5
1.50xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sheffield UtdBolton

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Sheffield Utd
0
Draws
3
Bolton
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 20%
0–11–02–02–30–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Utd
WWDWW
Bolton
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sheffield Utd vs Bolton — Match Preview

Sheffield Utd face Bolton on September 1, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sheffield Utd host Bolton at Bramall Lane.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.