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Bolton vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
C. Carter-Vickers 33'
9/12/2017ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bolton31%
×Draw27%
Sheffield Utd41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.11
Sheffield Utd
1.32

Sheffield Utd creates 19% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 116 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.16
Sheffield Utd
1.25

allows per match

Bolton
1.39
Sheffield Utd
1.07

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
59%
Bolton or Sheffield Utd
73%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
69%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
12%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
67%
Bolton 2+ goals
30%
Bolton 3+ goals
10%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
73%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
38%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
43%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.16 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sheffield Utd attack 1.25 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bolton scores more
31%
level
27%
Sheffield Utd scores more
41%

Sheffield Utd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
C. Carter-VickersSheffield UtdSheffield Utd · D
7.9

Match Events

30'
Filipe Morais← W. Buckley
33'
C. Carter-Vickers
41'
Filipe Morais
52'
Josh Cullen
64'
J. Lundstram← M. Duffy
67'
A. Le Fondre← A. Armstrong
73'
D. Brooks← B. Sharp
76'
A. Wilbraham← A. Robinson
82'
Daniel Lafferty
87'
C. Basham← G. Baldock
88'
Gary Madine

Possession

50%Bolton

Shots

13Bolton

Pass accuracy

51%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonSheffield
Overview
50%Possession50%
13Total Shots8
3Corners2
14Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots8
2On Target3
5Off Target2
6Blocked3
7Inside Box5
6Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
390Total Passes397
256Accurate Passes256
66%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls14
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Championship: Bolton 0–1 Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd beat Bolton 1-0 in Championship on September 12, 2017.

Goals: C. Carter-Vickers (33').

Bolton controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Horwich.