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Sheasham vs Manica Diamonds — Premier Soccer League 2026

Sheasham
Sheasham
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Manica Diamonds
Manica Diamonds
11/4/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 30Bata Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sheasham38%
×Draw34%
Manica Diamonds28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheasham
0.93
Manica Diamonds
0.75

Sheasham creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

creates per match

Sheasham
0.76
Manica Diamonds
0.69

allows per match

Sheasham
0.82
Manica Diamonds
1.09

finishing

Sheasham+0.00on par
Manica Diamonds+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheasham ↓

Manica Diamonds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sheasham or draw
72%
Sheasham or Manica Diamonds
66%
Draw or Manica Diamonds
62%

Winning margin

Sheasham wins by 2+
14%
Manica Diamonds wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sheasham 1+ goals
61%
Sheasham 2+ goals
24%
Sheasham 3+ goals
7%
Manica Diamonds 1+ goals
53%
Manica Diamonds 2+ goals
17%
Manica Diamonds 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sheasham (draw refunded)
58%
Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheasham at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Manica Diamonds away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheasham attack 0.76 + Manica Diamonds defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.93

Manica Diamonds attack 0.69 + Sheasham defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sheasham scores more
38%
level
34%
Manica Diamonds scores more
28%

Sheasham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sheasham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Sheasham 2–0 Manica Diamonds

Sheasham beat Manica Diamonds 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Bata Stadium in Gweru.