Sheasham 2–2 Kariba: Result & Stats

Sheasham

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Kariba

11/11/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 32Bata Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sheasham41%

×Draw34%

Kariba26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SheashamExpected goals in this matchKariba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.71

Sheasham

0.98

Kariba

0.71

Sheasham creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

0.76

creates per match

0.61

0.82

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sheasham

0.76

Kariba

0.61

allows per match

Sheasham

0.82

Kariba

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheasham+0.00on par

Kariba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheasham ↓

Kariba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Sheasham or draw

74%

Sheasham or Kariba

66%

Draw or Kariba

59%

Winning margin

Sheasham wins by 2+

16%

Kariba wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sheasham 1+ goals

62%

Sheasham 2+ goals

26%

Sheasham 3+ goals

8%

Kariba 1+ goals

51%

Kariba 2+ goals

16%

Kariba 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sheasham (draw refunded)

61%

Kariba (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheasham at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Kariba away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.20 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheasham attack 0.76 + Kariba defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.98

Kariba attack 0.61 + Sheasham defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sheasham scores more

41%

level

34%

Kariba scores more

26%

Sheasham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sheasham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff