Sheasham 0–2 Dynamos: Result & Stats

Sheasham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dynamos

8/20/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 19Bata Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sheasham30%

×Draw35%

Dynamos35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SheashamExpected goals in this matchDynamos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

0.86

Sheasham

0.77

Dynamos

0.86

Dynamos creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 95 away

0.76

creates per match

0.91

0.82

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Sheasham

0.76

Dynamos

0.91

allows per match

Sheasham

0.82

Dynamos

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheasham+0.00on par

Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheasham ↓

Dynamos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–117%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Sheasham or draw

65%

Sheasham or Dynamos

65%

Draw or Dynamos

70%

Winning margin

Sheasham wins by 2+

9%

Dynamos wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sheasham 1+ goals

54%

Sheasham 2+ goals

18%

Sheasham 3+ goals

4%

Dynamos 1+ goals

58%

Dynamos 2+ goals

21%

Dynamos 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sheasham (draw refunded)

46%

Dynamos (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheasham at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Dynamos away — creates 0.91, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheasham attack 0.76 + Dynamos defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.77

Dynamos attack 0.91 + Sheasham defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Sheasham scores more

30%

level

35%

Dynamos scores more

35%

Dynamos at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff