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Shashemene Kenema vs Sidama Bunna — Premier League 2019

Shashemene Kenema
Shashemene Kenema
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
10/25/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shashemene Kenema23%
×Draw28%
Sidama Bunna49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shashemene Kenema
0.85
Sidama Bunna
1.36

Sidama Bunna creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

Shashemene Kenema
0.60
Sidama Bunna
1.19

allows per match

Shashemene Kenema
1.53
Sidama Bunna
1.11

finishing

Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par
Sidama Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shashemene Kenema ↓

Sidama Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shashemene Kenema or draw
51%
Shashemene Kenema or Sidama Bunna
72%
Draw or Sidama Bunna
77%

Winning margin

Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+
8%
Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals
57%
Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals
21%
Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals
5%
Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
74%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
39%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)
32%
Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shashemene Kenema at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Sidama Bunna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.60 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.85

Sidama Bunna attack 1.19 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Shashemene Kenema scores more
23%
level
28%
Sidama Bunna scores more
49%

Sidama Bunna at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sidama Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shashemene Kenema 1 – 3 Sidama Bunna

Sidama Bunna beat Shashemene Kenema 3-1 in Premier League on October 25, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.