Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shashemene Kenema vs Awassa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Shashemene Kenema
Shashemene Kenema
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
10/15/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shashemene Kenema26%
×Draw28%
Awassa Kenema46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shashemene Kenema
0.91
Awassa Kenema
1.33

Awassa Kenema creates 46% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

creates per match

Shashemene Kenema
0.60
Awassa Kenema
1.14

allows per match

Shashemene Kenema
1.53
Awassa Kenema
1.22

finishing

Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par
Awassa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shashemene Kenema ↓

Awassa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shashemene Kenema or draw
54%
Shashemene Kenema or Awassa Kenema
72%
Draw or Awassa Kenema
74%

Winning margin

Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+
9%
Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals
60%
Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals
23%
Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals
6%
Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
74%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
38%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)
36%
Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shashemene Kenema at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Awassa Kenema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.22 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.60 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.91

Awassa Kenema attack 1.14 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shashemene Kenema scores more
26%
level
28%
Awassa Kenema scores more
46%

Awassa Kenema at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Awassa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shashemene Kenema 0 – 1 Awassa Kenema

Awassa Kenema beat Shashemene Kenema 1-0 in Premier League on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.