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Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Wahda FC
Al Wahda FCadvanced
9/14/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Round of 16Sharjah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sharjah FC32%
×Draw29%
Al Wahda FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sharjah FC
1.05
Al Wahda FC
1.18

Al Wahda FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sharjah FC
1.47
Al Wahda FC
0.88

allows per match

Sharjah FC
1.47
Al Wahda FC
0.63

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par
Al Wahda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Al Wahda FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw
61%
Sharjah FC or Al Wahda FC
71%
Draw or Al Wahda FC
68%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+
12%
Al Wahda FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals
65%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
28%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
9%
Al Wahda FC 1+ goals
69%
Al Wahda FC 2+ goals
33%
Al Wahda FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
45%
Al Wahda FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Al Wahda FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 1.47 + Al Wahda FC defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.05

Al Wahda FC attack 0.88 + Sharjah FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sharjah FC scores more
32%
level
29%
Al Wahda FC scores more
39%

Al Wahda FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Wahda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC

Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on September 14, 2021.

The match was played at Sharjah Stadium in Sharjah.