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Sharjah FC vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya — AFC Champions League 2018

Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
4/14/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group B - 1Sharjah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sharjah FC46%
×Draw27%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sharjah FC
1.39
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0.98

Sharjah FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sharjah FC
1.47
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0.50

allows per match

Sharjah FC
1.47
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.30

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par
Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw
73%
Sharjah FC or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
73%
Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
54%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+
22%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals
75%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
40%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
16%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
62%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
26%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
64%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 1.47 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 0.50 + Sharjah FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sharjah FC scores more
46%
level
27%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
27%

Sharjah FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sharjah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sharjah FC vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Sharjah FC beat Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1-0 in AFC Champions League on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Sharjah Stadium in Sharjah.