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Sharjah FC vs Al Faisaly — AFC Champions League 2018

Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Faisaly
Al Faisaly
10/2/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group B - 2Sharjah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sharjah FC72%
×Draw16%
Al Faisaly12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sharjah FC
2.61
Al Faisaly
0.98

Sharjah FC creates 166% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sharjah FC
1.47
Al Faisaly
0.50

allows per match

Sharjah FC
1.47
Al Faisaly
3.75

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par
Al Faisaly+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Al Faisaly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw
88%
Sharjah FC or Al Faisaly
84%
Draw or Al Faisaly
28%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+
50%
Al Faisaly wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals
93%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
73%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
47%
Al Faisaly 1+ goals
62%
Al Faisaly 2+ goals
26%
Al Faisaly 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
86%
Al Faisaly (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Al Faisaly away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 1.47 + Al Faisaly defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.61

Al Faisaly attack 0.50 + Sharjah FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sharjah FC scores more
72%
level
16%
Al Faisaly scores more
12%

Sharjah FC at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Sharjah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sharjah FC vs Al Faisaly

Sharjah FC beat Al Faisaly 1-0 in AFC Champions League on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sharjah Stadium in Sharjah.