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Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh — Presidents Cup 2019

Sharjah FC
Sharjah FCadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Bataeh
Al Bataeh
2/17/2024Presidents CupPresidents Cup · Round of 16Sharjah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sharjah FC37%
×Draw22%
Al Bataeh41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sharjah FC
1.78
Al Bataeh
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sharjah FC
1.90
Al Bataeh
1.83

allows per match

Sharjah FC
1.90
Al Bataeh
1.67

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par
Al Bataeh+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Al Bataeh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw
59%
Sharjah FC or Al Bataeh
78%
Draw or Al Bataeh
63%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+
19%
Al Bataeh wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals
83%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
53%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
26%
Al Bataeh 1+ goals
84%
Al Bataeh 2+ goals
55%
Al Bataeh 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
48%
Al Bataeh (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Al Bataeh away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 1.90 + Al Bataeh defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Al Bataeh attack 1.83 + Sharjah FC defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sharjah FC scores more
37%
level
22%
Al Bataeh scores more
41%

Al Bataeh at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Bataeh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Presidents Cup: Sharjah FC 2–1 Al Bataeh

Sharjah FC beat Al Bataeh 2-1 in Presidents Cup on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sharjah Stadium in Sharjah.