Shao Jiang 13–0 Sporting Macau: Result & Stats

Shao Jiang

FT

13 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Sporting Macau

5/9/2025

Primeira Divisão · Round 9Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Shao Jiang92%

×Draw6%

Sporting Macau3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shao JiangExpected goals in this matchSporting Macau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.65

0.85

Shao Jiang

4.65

Sporting Macau

0.85

Shao Jiang creates 447% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

4.37

creates per match

0.86

0.84

allows per match

4.93

creates per match

Shao Jiang

4.37

Sporting Macau

0.86

allows per match

Shao Jiang

0.84

Sporting Macau

4.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shao Jiang+0.00on par

Sporting Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shao Jiang ↓

Sporting Macau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Shao Jiang or draw

97%

Shao Jiang or Sporting Macau

94%

Draw or Sporting Macau

8%

Winning margin

Shao Jiang wins by 2+

80%

Sporting Macau wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Shao Jiang 1+ goals

99%

Shao Jiang 2+ goals

93%

Shao Jiang 3+ goals

81%

Sporting Macau 1+ goals

57%

Sporting Macau 2+ goals

21%

Sporting Macau 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shao Jiang (draw refunded)

97%

Sporting Macau (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shao Jiang at home — creates 4.37, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Sporting Macau away — creates 0.86, concedes 4.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shao Jiang attack 4.37 + Sporting Macau defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 4.65

Sporting Macau attack 0.86 + Shao Jiang defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Shao Jiang scores more

92%

level

6%

Sporting Macau scores more

3%

Shao Jiang at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Shao Jiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff