Shao Jiang 3–0 Hang Sai: Result & Stats

Shao Jiang

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hang Sai

3/7/2026

Primeira Divisão · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Shao Jiang80%

×Draw11%

Hang Sai9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shao JiangExpected goals in this matchHang Sai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.94

1.34

Shao Jiang

3.94

Hang Sai

1.34

Shao Jiang creates 194% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 32 away

4.37

creates per match

1.84

0.84

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Shao Jiang

4.37

Hang Sai

1.84

allows per match

Shao Jiang

0.84

Hang Sai

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shao Jiang+0.00on par

Hang Sai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shao Jiang ↓

Hang Sai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

75%25%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Shao Jiang or draw

91%

Shao Jiang or Hang Sai

89%

Draw or Hang Sai

20%

Winning margin

Shao Jiang wins by 2+

64%

Hang Sai wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Shao Jiang 1+ goals

98%

Shao Jiang 2+ goals

89%

Shao Jiang 3+ goals

72%

Hang Sai 1+ goals

74%

Hang Sai 2+ goals

39%

Hang Sai 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shao Jiang (draw refunded)

90%

Hang Sai (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shao Jiang at home — creates 4.37, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Hang Sai away — creates 1.84, concedes 3.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shao Jiang attack 4.37 + Hang Sai defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.94

Hang Sai attack 1.84 + Shao Jiang defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Shao Jiang scores more

80%

level

11%

Hang Sai scores more

9%

Shao Jiang at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Shao Jiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff