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Shao Jiang vs Cheng Fung — Primeira Divisão 2026

Shao Jiang
Shao Jiang
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cheng Fung
Cheng Fung
4/19/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Shao Jiang68%
×Draw16%
Cheng Fung16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shao Jiang
2.87
Cheng Fung
1.36

Shao Jiang creates 111% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 35 away

creates per match

Shao Jiang
4.37
Cheng Fung
1.89

allows per match

Shao Jiang
0.84
Cheng Fung
1.37

finishing

Shao Jiang+0.00on par
Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shao Jiang ↓

Cheng Fung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Shao Jiang or draw
84%
Shao Jiang or Cheng Fung
84%
Draw or Cheng Fung
32%

Winning margin

Shao Jiang wins by 2+
47%
Cheng Fung wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shao Jiang 1+ goals
94%
Shao Jiang 2+ goals
77%
Shao Jiang 3+ goals
53%
Cheng Fung 1+ goals
74%
Cheng Fung 2+ goals
39%
Cheng Fung 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shao Jiang (draw refunded)
81%
Cheng Fung (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shao Jiang at home — creates 4.37, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Cheng Fung away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shao Jiang attack 4.37 + Cheng Fung defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.87

Cheng Fung attack 1.89 + Shao Jiang defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Shao Jiang scores more
68%
level
16%
Cheng Fung scores more
16%

Shao Jiang at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Shao Jiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Shao Jiang 2–1 Cheng Fung

Shao Jiang beat Cheng Fung 2-1 in Primeira Divisão on April 19, 2026.