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Shangyu Pterosaur vs Shenzhen Juniors — League Two 2026

Shangyu Pterosaur
Shangyu Pterosaur
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Shenzhen Juniors
Shenzhen Juniors
6/2/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 10Dingnan Football Youth Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shangyu Pterosaur29%
×Draw24%
Shenzhen Juniors48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shangyu Pterosaur
1.27
Shenzhen Juniors
1.71

Shenzhen Juniors creates 35% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 14 away

creates per match

Shangyu Pterosaur
1.46
Shenzhen Juniors
1.79

allows per match

Shangyu Pterosaur
1.63
Shenzhen Juniors
1.07

finishing

Shangyu Pterosaur+0.00on par
Shenzhen Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shangyu Pterosaur ↓

Shenzhen Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shangyu Pterosaur or draw
52%
Shangyu Pterosaur or Shenzhen Juniors
76%
Draw or Shenzhen Juniors
71%

Winning margin

Shangyu Pterosaur wins by 2+
12%
Shenzhen Juniors wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Shangyu Pterosaur 1+ goals
72%
Shangyu Pterosaur 2+ goals
36%
Shangyu Pterosaur 3+ goals
14%
Shenzhen Juniors 1+ goals
82%
Shenzhen Juniors 2+ goals
51%
Shenzhen Juniors 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Shangyu Pterosaur (draw refunded)
37%
Shenzhen Juniors (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shangyu Pterosaur at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

Shenzhen Juniors away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shangyu Pterosaur attack 1.46 + Shenzhen Juniors defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Shenzhen Juniors attack 1.79 + Shangyu Pterosaur defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shangyu Pterosaur scores more
29%
level
24%
Shenzhen Juniors scores more
48%

Shenzhen Juniors at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shenzhen Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Shangyu Pterosaur 0–3 Shenzhen Juniors

Shenzhen Juniors beat Shangyu Pterosaur 3-0 in League Two on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Dingnan Football Youth Training Center in Dingnan.