SHANGHAI SIPG 2–0 Sichuan Jiuniu: Result & Stats

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sichuan Jiuniu

Feng Jin 82'

Wu Lei 18'

9/13/2024

Super League · Round 25SAIC Motor Pudong Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG58%

×Draw21%

Sichuan Jiuniu22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchSichuan Jiuniu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.26

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.16

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.26

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 71% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

2.39

creates per match

1.20

1.32

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.39

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.20

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.32

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.93

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.64scores less than expected

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG-0.09on par

Sichuan Jiuniu-0.64scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Sichuan Jiuniu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

78%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Sichuan Jiuniu

79%

Draw or Sichuan Jiuniu

42%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

35%

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

88%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

63%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

36%

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

72%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

36%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

73%

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.32 · 10 matches

Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.93 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.39 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.16

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.20 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

58%

level

21%

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

22%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Oscar

SHANGHAI SIPG · M

8.5

Match Events

18'

Wu Lei

46'

Feng Jin← Gustavo

58'

Yinong Tian

67'

Nizamdin Ependi← Li Zhi

72'

Fu Huan← Wang Shenchao

72'

Yang Shiyuan← Xu Xin

75'

Wu Lei

80'

Behram Abduweli← Thiago Andrade

80'

Zhu Baojie← Dai Wai-Tsun

82'

Feng Jin↳ M. Vargas

86'

Bao Shimeng← Li Shuai

86'

Matt Orr← E. Kartsev

86'

Zhang Yudong← Hu Ruibao

89'

Lü Wenjun← M. Vargas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SHANGHAISichuan

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots13

3.42Expected Goals (xG)1.15

8Corners0

11Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots13

6On Target3

8Off Target8

4Blocked2

13Inside Box10

5Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

526Total Passes328

452Accurate Passes246

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

6Offsides2

Match Recap: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Sichuan Jiuniu 2-0 in Super League on September 13, 2024.

Goals: Wu Lei (18'), Feng Jin (82').

SHANGHAI SIPG controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Shanghai.

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu — Super League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu