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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — Super League 2018

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
12/26/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Championship Round - 5Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG67%
×Draw18%
Shenzhen Ruby FC14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.33
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0.97

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 140% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 67 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.42
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
0.90
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.25

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
86%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Shenzhen Ruby FC
82%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
33%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
44%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
90%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
67%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
41%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
62%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
25%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
83%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.90 · 119 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.42 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.33

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
67%
level
18%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
14%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SHANGHAI SIPG 3 – 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 3-1 in Super League on December 26, 2021.

The match was played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Guangzhou.