SHANGHAI SIPG 2–1 Qingdao Youth Island

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Qingdao Youth Island

Oscar 53', 43'

Zhang Xiuwei 74'

9/28/2024

Super League · Round 27SAIC Motor Pudong Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG59%

×Draw19%

Qingdao Youth Island22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchQingdao Youth Island

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.41

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.42

Qingdao Youth Island

1.41

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 72% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.39

creates per match

1.50

1.32

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.39

Qingdao Youth Island

1.50

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.32

Qingdao Youth Island

2.46

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG-0.09on par

Qingdao Youth Island-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

78%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Qingdao Youth Island

81%

Draw or Qingdao Youth Island

41%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

38%

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

91%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

69%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

43%

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals

76%

Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals

41%

Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

73%

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.32 · 10 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.39 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.42

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.50 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

59%

level

19%

Qingdao Youth Island scores more

22%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Oscar

SHANGHAI SIPG · M

10.0

Match Events

22'

Piao Shihao

35'

Lü Wenjun← Wu Lei

37'

He Longhai← Piao Shihao

41'

Xin Xu

43'

Oscar

46'

Li Shuai← Wang Shenchao

46'

Duan Liuyu← Feng Gang

53'

Oscar↳ Gustavo

68'

Léo Cittadini← Xu Xin

74'

Zhang Xiuwei↳ J. Beauguel

79'

Liu Zhurun← Feng Jin

79'

Bao Shimeng← Fu Huan

83'

Shimeng Bao

83'

Abduhelil Osmanjan← Zhang Xiuwei

90+3'

Honglüe Zhao

90+1'

Jean-David Beauguel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SHANGHAIQingdao

Overview

57%Possession43%

21Total Shots17

2.01Expected Goals (xG)1.99

7Corners7

13Fouls14

Shots

21Total Shots17

11On Target4

5Off Target7

5Blocked6

15Inside Box12

6Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

445Total Passes339

378Accurate Passes260

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3