SHANGHAI SIPG 0–1 Kaya: Result & Stats

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kaya

6/23/2021

AFC Champions League · Play-offsLEO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG65%

×Draw19%

Kaya16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchKaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.99

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.23

Kaya

0.99

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 125% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 8 away

1.32

creates per match

0.50

1.48

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.32

Kaya

0.50

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.48

Kaya

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Kaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Kaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

84%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Kaya

81%

Draw or Kaya

35%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

42%

Kaya wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

89%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

65%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

38%

Kaya 1+ goals

63%

Kaya 2+ goals

26%

Kaya 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

81%

Kaya (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Kaya away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.32 + Kaya defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.23

Kaya attack 0.50 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

65%

level

19%

Kaya scores more

16%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff