SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Kawasaki Frontale: Result & Stats

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kawasaki Frontale

4/4/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG23%

×Draw22%

Kawasaki Frontale55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchKawasaki Frontale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.92

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.16

Kawasaki Frontale

1.92

Kawasaki Frontale creates 66% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

1.32

creates per match

2.35

1.48

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.32

Kawasaki Frontale

2.35

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.48

Kawasaki Frontale

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

45%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Kawasaki Frontale

78%

Draw or Kawasaki Frontale

77%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

9%

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

69%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

32%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

11%

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

85%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

57%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

29%

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.32 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.35 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

23%

level

22%

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

55%

Kawasaki Frontale at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff