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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Kashima — AFC Champions League 2018

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kashima
Kashima
5/16/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · 8th FinalsShanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG32%
×Draw25%
Kashima43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.33
Kashima
1.57

Kashima creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 12 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.32
Kashima
1.67

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.48
Kashima
1.33

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par
Kashima+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Kashima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
57%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Kashima
75%
Draw or Kashima
68%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
14%
Kashima wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
74%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
38%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
15%
Kashima 1+ goals
79%
Kashima 2+ goals
46%
Kashima 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
43%
Kashima (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Kashima away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.32 + Kashima defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kashima attack 1.67 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
32%
level
25%
Kashima scores more
43%

Kashima at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: SHANGHAI SIPG 2–1 Kashima

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Kashima 2-1 in AFC Champions League on May 16, 2018.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.