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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Johor Darul Takzim FC — AFC Champions League 2018

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
9/18/2024AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Stage - 1SAIC Motor Pudong Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG46%
×Draw24%
Johor Darul Takzim FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.64
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.28

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 28% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.32
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.08

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.48
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.96

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par
Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
70%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Johor Darul Takzim FC
76%
Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC
54%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
24%
Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
81%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
49%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
23%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
72%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
37%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
60%
Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.32 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.64

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.08 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
46%
level
24%
Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
30%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Johor Darul Takzim FC

SHANGHAI SIPG and Johor Darul Takzim FC drew 2-2 in AFC Champions League on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Shanghai.