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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Jilin Baijia — FA Cup 2019

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jilin Baijia
Jilin Baijia
5/29/2019FA CupFA Cup · 5th RoundShanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG48%
×Draw25%
Jilin Baijia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.62
Jilin Baijia
1.14

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 42% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.91
Jilin Baijia
1.00

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.27
Jilin Baijia
1.33

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par
Jilin Baijia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Jilin Baijia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
73%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Jilin Baijia
75%
Draw or Jilin Baijia
52%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
25%
Jilin Baijia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
80%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
48%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
22%
Jilin Baijia 1+ goals
68%
Jilin Baijia 2+ goals
32%
Jilin Baijia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
64%
Jilin Baijia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Jilin Baijia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.91 + Jilin Baijia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.62

Jilin Baijia attack 1.00 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
48%
level
25%
Jilin Baijia scores more
27%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Jilin Baijia

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Jilin Baijia 4-0 in FA Cup on May 29, 2019.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.