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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F — Super League 2018

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Guangzhou R&F
Guangzhou R&F
9/25/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Changchun's People Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG62%
×Draw20%
Guangzhou R&F18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.12
Guangzhou R&F
1.03

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 106% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 70 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.42
Guangzhou R&F
1.16

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
0.90
Guangzhou R&F
1.81

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par
Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Guangzhou R&F →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
82%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Guangzhou R&F
80%
Draw or Guangzhou R&F
38%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
39%
Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
88%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
62%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
35%
Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals
64%
Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals
28%
Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
78%
Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.90 · 119 matches

Guangzhou R&F away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.81 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.42 + Guangzhou R&F defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.12

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.16 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
62%
level
20%
Guangzhou R&F scores more
18%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Guangzhou R&F 2-0 in Super League on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Changchun's People Stadium in Changchun.