SHANGHAI SIPG vs FC Seoul — AFC Champions League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
SHANGHAI SIPG48%
FC Seoul28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
SHANGHAI SIPG creates 35% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SHANGHAI SIPG ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches
FC Seoul away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.42 + FC Seoul defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.76
FC Seoul attack 1.10 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
SHANGHAI SIPG at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
Machida Zelvia
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Vissel Kobe
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Tractor Sazi
Buriram United
Al-Ittihad FC
Melbourne City
Al Wahda FC
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Al-Duhail SCFC Seoul
Gangwon FC
Al Sadd
Chengdu Better City
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Sharjah FC
Al-Gharafa
Al Shorta
Nasaf
Shanghai ShenhuaSHANGHAI SIPG
Sepahan FC
Bangkok UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
SHANGHAI SIPG host FC Seoul on Wednesday, 26 April 2017 at 11:30. The match is part of the AFC Champions League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: SHANGHAI SIPG vs FC Seoul
SHANGHAI SIPG beat FC Seoul 4-2 in AFC Champions League on April 26, 2017.
Goals: Maurinho (10'), Hulk (25'), Zhang Wei (30'), Wu Lei (43'), Chu-Young Park (70'), Oscar (74').
FC Seoul controlled possession (65%) and registered 16 shots to 13.
The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.