SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Dalian Aerbin: Result & Stats

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dalian Aerbin

7/8/2023

Super League · Round 15SAIC Motor Pudong Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG63%

×Draw20%

Dalian Aerbin17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchDalian Aerbin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.00

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.13

Dalian Aerbin

1.00

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 113% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 84 away

2.42

creates per match

1.10

0.90

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.42

Dalian Aerbin

1.10

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

0.90

Dalian Aerbin

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Dalian Aerbin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

83%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Dalian Aerbin

80%

Draw or Dalian Aerbin

37%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

39%

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

88%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

63%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

35%

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals

63%

Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals

26%

Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

79%

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.90 · 119 matches

Dalian Aerbin away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.42 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.13

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.10 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

63%

level

20%

Dalian Aerbin scores more

17%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff