SHANGHAI SIPG 2–1 Chongqing Lifan: Result & Stats

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Chongqing Lifan

3/30/2018

Super League · Round 4Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG61%

×Draw21%

Chongqing Lifan19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchChongqing Lifan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.07

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.10

Chongqing Lifan

1.07

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 96% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 50 away

2.42

creates per match

1.24

0.90

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.42

Chongqing Lifan

1.24

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

0.90

Chongqing Lifan

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Chongqing Lifan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

81%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Chongqing Lifan

79%

Draw or Chongqing Lifan

39%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

37%

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

88%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

62%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

35%

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals

66%

Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals

29%

Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

77%

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.90 · 119 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.42 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.10

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.24 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

61%

level

21%

Chongqing Lifan scores more

19%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff