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Chongqing Lifan vs SHANGHAI SIPG — Super League 2018

Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
9/28/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Suzhou City Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chongqing Lifan28%
×Draw25%
SHANGHAI SIPG48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Lifan
1.18
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.62

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 37% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 122 away

creates per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.26
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.90

allows per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.34
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.10

finishing

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par
SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Lifan ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chongqing Lifan or draw
52%
Chongqing Lifan or SHANGHAI SIPG
75%
Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG
72%

Winning margin

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
11%
SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
69%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
33%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
12%
SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
80%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
48%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
37%
SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Lifan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.26 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.90 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chongqing Lifan scores more
28%
level
25%
SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
48%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chongqing Lifan vs SHANGHAI SIPG

Chongqing Lifan beat SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0 in Super League on September 28, 2020.

The match was played at Suzhou City Sports Centre in Suzhou.